Current Account Surplus At Record High In June Quarter: RBI Data

The economy shrank 23.9% in the June quarter, far worse than economists’ estimates


India’s current account surplus rose to a record $19.8 billion in April-June as its trade deficit narrowed sharply, the Reserve Bank of India said on Wednesday.

The current account figure for the first quarter of the fiscal year compared with a surplus of $600 million in the January-March quarter, which was the country’s first surplus in 13 years.

The surplus stood at 3.9 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) in the latest quarter, compared with a deficit of $15 billion or 2.1 per cent in the same period a year ago, RBI data showed.

The higher balance-to-GDP ratio is primarily due to sharp contractions in both the trade deficit and economic activity, said Rupa Rege Nitsure, chief economist at L&T Financial Services.

The country’s merchandise trade balance recorded a deficit of $10 billion in April-June, sharply lower than the deficit of $46.8 billion in the same quarter a year ago.

Its economy contracted by 23.9 per cent in the June quarter, far worse than economists had predicted, as sweeping coronavirus restrictions paralysed business and consumer activity. They are now predicting around a 10% contraction for the full year 2020/21.

Net services receipts remained stable, primarily on the back of net earnings from computer services, the RBI said.

Private transfer receipts, mainly representing remittances by Indians employed overseas, amounted to $18.2 billion, a fall of 8.7 per cent from the previous year.

Net foreign direct investments recorded an outflow of $400 million, as against inflows of $14.0 billion in same quarter previous year.

The balance of payments showed a surplus of $19.8 billion in the first quarter of 2020/21, compared with a surplus of $14 billion a year earlier.

“This may not sustain for very long as imports will start growing at the faster pace than exports once the economic engine becomes fully operational,” Ms Nitsure said.

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